Prediction of Saveliy Ivanov vs Sten Hiiesalu at M15 Sharm ElSheikh 12-02-25

• In terms of recent second serve effectiveness, Saveliy Ivanov boasts a win rate of 42.75% on second serve points compared to Sten Hiiesalu's 37.21%.
• Interestingly, when it comes to returning their opponent's second serve, Sten Hiiesalu scores higher, securing 62.86% of points, while Saveliy Ivanov achieves 44.84%.
• Question: How do they both fare on first serve returns? Answer: Saveliy Ivanov captures 24.87% of points on first serve returns, slightly trailing Sten Hiiesalu at 26.67%.
• Under pressure, Ivanov saves 55.91% of breakpoints, displaying stronger mental resilience compared to Hiiesalu's 46.67%.
• Looking at their annual performance, Ivanov's match win rate sits at 34.62%, while Hiiesalu's significantly higher at 59.09%, suggesting superior form over this period.
• Both players excel on clay with a win rate of 56%, but Hiiesalu shines more on hard courts with 59%, compared to Ivanov's 44%.
• Question: What do their tournament levels say about them? Answer: Hiiesalu performs better at Futures/Satellites/ITF tournaments $10K with a 59.09% win rate, overshadowing Ivanov's 36.00% in the same level events.
• Ivanov's recent opponents have an average rank of 346.15. Meanwhile, Hiiesalu's opponent quality could not be assessed, potentially indicating a disparity in competition level.
• If the match reaches a deciding set, Hiiesalu has the upper hand with a 67% win rate, while Ivanov has won just 35% of such sets.
• In terms of break point conversion, Hiiesalu is more efficient, converting 30.00% of opportunities, whereas Ivanov converts 26.00%.

Editorial Prediction (December 1, 2025, UTC):

As the upcoming match draws near, the comparison of statistics highlights Sten Hiiesalu's edge in several key areas. His superior recent match win rate and efficiency in both returning serves and converting break points suggest a stronger overall form.

While Saveliy Ivanov shows resilience under pressure with his breakpoint saves and slightly better second serve stats, these factors may not be sufficient to tilt the match in his favor against Hiiesalu's consistent performance.

Considering performance patterns and the match context, Sten Hiiesalu is more likely to come out victorious, benefiting from his impressive return game and adaptability in challenging match scenarios.